[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2827 (N12E09, Csi/beta) exhibited sporadic growth in its trailer spots, yet simplified magnetically, and was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 01/0431 UTC. Region 2828 (S31E12) decayed to plage during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available data.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, over 01-03 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 01-03 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds fell to near 300 km/s, total field strength averaged near 3 nT, and Bz remained near 0 nT. The phi angle was variable early before turning mostly negative for the majority of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced on 01-02 Jun due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS and the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 May CME. Levels may remain elevated but starting to return toward ambient on 03 Jun, as CH and CME influences wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to undergo weak enhancements, with unsettled and active conditions likely on 01-02 Jun, due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS and the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 May CME. Levels may remain elevated but start to return toward ambient conditions on 03 Jun as CH and CME influences diminish.

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