[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2827 (N11W21, Cso/beta) was mostly unchanged and inactive during the period. Region 2829 (S18E41, Hrx/alpha) had intermittent spot development in its trailer region, and was responsible for a few B-level enhancements throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 03-05 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 03-05 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the delayed arrival of the CME from 28 May. Solar wind speeds impulsively increased from 280 km/s to 320 km/s and then later rising to a modest 330 km/s. Simultaneously, solar wind density increased from 9 ppcm3 to 22, then later rises to 42 ppcm3. Bt increased from 3 nT to 7 nT, staying slightly elevated for only three hours. This was a very modest CME glancing blow. Conditions then returned to near background levels for several hours. Later in the period, another enhancement was observed as solar wind speeds increased back up to near 320 km/s, density reached 45 ppcm3, and the phi angle rotated into a positive orientation. Total field gradually increased to peak near 9 nT, while Bz saw a southward deviation to -6 nT. Phi eventually rotated back into a negative orientation by the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain slightly enhanced due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS combined with lingering weak CME influence. Levels should remain elevated on 03-04 Jun as CH influences persist. A return to mostly ambient conditions is expected on 05 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to begin the period. Following the weak CME passage at L1, a modest response was measured at the global network of magnetometers, falling short of a typical sudden impulse signature. Isolated unsettled periods were observed from 02/1200-1500 UTC and again from 03/0600-0900 UTC.

Forecast: Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance for isolated active periods, due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS combined with weak lingering CME influence. Levels should remain elevated on 03-04 Jun as CH influences persist. A return to mostly ambient conditions is expected on 05 Jun.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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