[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flares from beyond the NW limb. The largest was an impulsive C3 flare that occurred at 09/0907 UTC. While the source for this flare is unknown, C2 and C1 flares also took place from a similar location beyond the NW limb at 08/1723 and 08/1908 UTC, respectively, and were likely from former Region 2831 (N24, L=79). Region 2829 (S17W35, Cso/beta) decayed further and was inactive. Region 2830 (S25, L=68) rotated beyond the limb.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 09-11 Jun with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 09-11 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength was mainly 2 to 4 nT and the Bz component was primarily neutral or weakly southward directed. Solar wind speed decreased from a peak of 503 km/s to speeds between 375-400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative until 08/2140 UTC, when it became variable with a mostly positive bias.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced 09-10 Jun due to waning CH HSS activity. A return to a nominal condition is expected on 11 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with quiet to unsettled conditions 09-10 Jun due to waning CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are likely on 11 Jun.

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