[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Low solar activity levels continued as a C1 flare occurred at 10/0642 UTC from an active region along or just behind the SE limb (S20E90). A CME first observed at 10/0700 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 was associated with this flare. Initial indications are that this CME is not likely Earth-directed, however, analysis will continue as more coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Additional flare activity from source regions beyond the west limb subsided. Region 2829 (S20W45, Hrx/alpha) decayed further and was inactive and Region 2832 (N14W06, Bxo/beta) changed little and was stable.

The C1 flare which occurred at 09/1159 UTC was correlated with a type II radio sweep at 09/1201 UTC. The associated CME was first observed in SOHO C2 imagery at 09/1224 UTC and analysis determined it to be not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 10-12 Jun with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reflected a slight enhancement (resultant from the CME off the west limb first seen at 09/1224 UTC), but it remained well below any NOAA space weather scale values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 10-12 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was mainly 2 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations. Solar wind speed was mostly between 325-375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient conditions for 10-12 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for 10-12 Jun.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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