[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N24E45, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were identifiable in solar imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 15-17 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 15-17 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a minor disturbance in the IMF, likely due to a SSBC. Total IMF strength was 2 to 5 nT until near 15/0030 UTC, when it increased and peaked at 12 nT at 15/0752 UTC. The Bz component underwent weak deviations initially, but became more variable in conjunction with the Bt increase. Solar wind speed ranged from 325-400 km/s. Density steadily increased after 15/0600 UTC from ~10 ppcm3 to near 50 ppcm3. The phi angle switched from a positive sector into a negative sector at about 15/0003 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to see enhancements continue on 15-17 Jun as a series of negative polarity CH HSSs rotate into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: On 15 Jun, the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active conditions likely due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. By late on 16 Jun and continuing into 17 Jun, conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely as CH effects persist.

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