[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N25E31, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 16 Jun, increasing to moderate to high levels on 17-18 Jun in response to the high speed solar wind stream described below. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels in the absence of significant active regions.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The high speed stream associated with the south polar coronal hole and extension has established itself based on measurements at DSCOVR. Wind speed remained in the mid to upper 500 km/s range, temperature remained elevated, and the Phi angle was negative. Bt decreased from 14 nT to 4 nT over the past 24 hours and Bz relaxed from -10 nT at the beginning of the period to hover near 0 nT by forecast time.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 17 Jun before the coronal hole moves out of a geo-effective position on the 18th

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a single period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions in response to the high speed stream described above.

Forecast: As the high speed solar wind stream becomes established, the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a lingering chance for a G1 (Minor) storm period on 16 Jun. The threat of a minor storm period on 17 Jun appears to be diminishing and the forecast was adjusted accordingly. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 18 Jun.

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