[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N23W49, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 22-24 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,330 pfu observed at 21/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 22-24 Jun, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A minor enhancement in the solar wind was observed starting around the beginning of the UTC day. Solar wind speed increased some peaking at 395 km/s. Total field strength climbed to 8 nT, and Bz deviated southward in excess of -5 nT for about an hour. The phi angle, while mostly negative, suggested current sheet influence.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at or near background levels with isolated enhancements possible. A negative polarity CH HSS, originating from an extension of the northern crown, may introduce additional, minor enhancements on 24 Jun. By 25 Jun the solar wind environment is expected to be mostly at background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A minor disturbance was observed in the solar wind starting around 22/00 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 23 Jun, although an isolated unsettled period cannot be ruled out with other minor enhancements. Unsettled levels appear much more likely on 24 Jun with a positive polarity CH HSS originating from a CH extending from the northern crown.

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