[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2833 (N24W66, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. A long duration C3 flare originated near a spotless area of plage near the northeast limb at 23/0707 UTC. A Type II radio sweep and an eruptive prominence on the limb were also observed around this time. A CME was visible in LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery, but given this was a limb event, it is not forecast to affect Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare over 23-25 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels through 25 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Minor enhancements in the IMF were observed over the last 24 hours. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT at the beginning of the reporting period, then generally settled around 5 nT or less through the end of the period. The Bz component underwent only minor deviations. Wind speed averaged around 365 km/s. The phi angle continues to rotate between positive and negative solar sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near or just above background levels with isolated enhancements possible. A positive polarity extension of the northern crown is likely to produce minor enhancements on 23-24 Jun, with conditions returning to near background conditions by 25 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 24 Jun as the northern polar extension continues to weakly influence the field. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return by 25 Jun as the CH HSS moves out of geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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