[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2835 (S18E19, Dsi/beta-gamma) produced a C1 flare at 28/1911 UTC. The remaining two regions on the visible disk, Regions 2836 (S28E14, Cro/beta) and 2837 (N17E62, Hsx/alpha), were relatively unchanged and absent of significant flare activity. Multiple CMEs were observed in LASCO C2/C3 imagery at 28/1124 UTC, 28/1325 UTC, 28/1724 UTC, and 28/1948 UTC. All of these events occurred on the west limb and appear to be directed away from the Sun-Earth line, however, analysis is ongoing to determine if any contain and Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Very low solar activity, with a chance for C-class flaring, is expected on 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values on 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected background conditions.

Forecast: Minor solar wind enhancements are likely throughout the forecast period (29-30 Jun and 01 Jul) due to a northern, polar-connected CH HSS and possible influence from the 27 Jun CME mentioned in the previous discussion product.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 29 Jun. Minor CH HSS influences may lead to unsettled conditions on 30 Jun. Unsettled conditions, with a chance for active levels on 1 Jul, are likely in response to waning CH HSS influences and possible weak effects from the nearby CME passage.

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