[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2859 (N16E06, Hsx/alpha) produced a few B-flares, the largest of which was a B7 flare at 26/1051 UTC. Region 2860 (S30E14, Dao/beta) was mostly quiet with continued separation occurring between its trailing and leading spots.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity on 26-28 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26-27 Aug, and then reach high levels on 28 Aug in response to CH HSS coupled with weak CME influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was near background levels. Total field strength ranged from 1 to 6 nT and Bz underwent no significant deviations. Wind speed averaged around 350 km/s. The phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: A CH HSS (positive polarity) is still forecast to connect with Earth today, albeit with less confidence. Further enhancements are likely on 27-28 Aug with possible weak influence from the 23 Aug CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Isolated active levels are predicted through 28 Aug with probable CH HSS (positive polarity) influence on 26 Aug; otherwise quiet to unsettled levels are expected. Some influence from the 23 Aug CME is still anticipated on 27-28 Aug.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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