[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with four numbered regions currently on the disk. Region 2859 (N18W00, Cso/beta) produced a C3/1F flare at 26/1818 UTC. Associated with this flare was a partial-halo CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 26/1900 UTC. The region exhibited some decay in the trailer portion of the region.

The largest region on the disk, Region 2860 (S29E09, Dki/beta-gamma), produced a C1/Sf at 26/1901 UTC and a C3/Sn at 26/2322 UTC. Associated with the second flare was a Type II radio sweep along with low level, multi-frequency radio emissions. The region displayed rapid growth, both in area and spot count, and exhibited mixed polarities within the leader portion of the group.

Region 2861 (N15E47, Bxo/beta) produced some B-class activity, but was otherwise stable. New Region 2862 (S29W62, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period and was quiet and stable.

Initial analysis, and subsequent model output, suggests the 26/1818 UTC CME possibly has a potential Earth-directed component. However, more analysis is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for R1-Minor flare activity on 27-29 Aug. These increased levels are due to the rapid growth and complexity of Region 2860.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 27-29 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was at background levels through about 27/0025 UTC when solar wind data observed a weak shock, most probably associated with the expected arrival of the 23 Aug CME. Total field strength increased from about 3 nT to 8 nT while the Bz component went from a steady -3 nT to range between +6 to -5 nT. Wind speed increased from about 360 km/s to near 425 km/s. The phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Enhancements from a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated on 27-29 Aug coupled weak influence from the 23 Aug CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals, are predicted on 27-29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Some influence from the 23 Aug CME is anticipated on 27 Aug.

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