[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Sep 03 23:18 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20210903 23:18 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36 ARLP036 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 3, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP036 ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity is on the upswing this week. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 21.7 to 50.6, with a high of 77 last Saturday, August 28. Average daily solar flux rose from 78.5 to 88.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 9.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 5.7 to 10.7. Geomagnetic activity peaked on August 27 and 28 due to a coronal mass ejection.

New sunspot regions appeared on August 26 and 27, and on September 2 Spaceweather.com reported 'New Sunspot, Rapidly Growing' to announce the emergence of AR2863.

Predicted solar flux looks promising, particularly after mid-September, at 85 and 82 on September 3 and 4, 80 on September 5 and 6, 78 on September 7, 75 on September 8 to 10, 80 on September 11 to 14, 85 on September 15, 90 on September 16 to 30, 85 on October 1, and 80 on October 2 to 10. Flux values rise to 90 again after October 12 in this forecast from September 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 6, 5 on September 7 to 10, then 10 and 8 on September 11 and 12, 5 on September 13 to 20, 8 on September 21, 5 on September 22 to 25, then a big jump to 25, 8, 18, 8, and 12 on September 26 to 30, and back to 5 on October 1 to 7, then 10 and 8 on October 8 and 9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 3 to 29, 2021, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be Quiet on September 7 and 8, 10, 14 and 15, 17 and 18, 28 and 29 Quiet to unsettled on September 4 and 5, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 27 Quiet to active on September 3, 6, 9, 11 and 12, 20 and 21, 26 Unsettled to active on September 23 and (- 24) Active to disturbed, nothing predicted

Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - The situation is confusing, the configuration of active regions and coronal holes is variable, so this time it is not possible to make a so-so reliable forecast. Here and there it happens before solar activity rises. - F. K. Janda will travel next week, therefore next forecast will be compiled on September 16.'

The autumnal equinox will be on Wednesday, September 22 in the Northern Hemisphere, always a welcome event for HF propagation. Solar flux is forecast to be higher at that time, also a good sign.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for August 26 through September 1, 2021 were 47, 73, 77, 44, 41, 37, and 35, with a mean of 50.6. 10.7 cm flux was 88.6, 89.5, 89.9, 88.7, 90.6, 84.4, and 84.2, with a mean of 88. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 14, 8, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 19, 17, 9, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation