[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2863 (S16E09, Cso/beta) was absent of significant flare activity and displayed simplification in its trailer. Region 2864 (N25E16, Cao/beta) was quiet with growth in its leader. New Regions 2865 (N22E30, Bxo/beta) and 2866 (S18E70, Bxo/beta) were both unremarkable. Region 2860 (S29, L=002), which rotated around the west limb, produced B-class flare activity and was active throughout the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares, over 04-06 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,900 pfu observed at 03/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04-06 Sep, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds were steady between 350-450 km/s under a nominal solar wind regime. Total field peaked at 6 nT. Bz dropped as low as -5 nT. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced over 05-06 Sep due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 04 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 05-06 Sep due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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