[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1/Sf flare at 07/0934 UTC. Region 2863 (S16W35, Hsx/alpha) decayed into a unipolar configuration. Region 2864 (N24W27, Eso/beta) increased heliographic extent as the leader and trailer spots spread broadened. Region 2866 (S17E27, Dkc/beta) matured into a compact group, while it still remained in a simple bipolar configuration. The region was mildly active as it produced the aforementioned C1 flare and occasional B-level enhancements. Region 2868 (S21E11, Dso/beta) lead spot grew in areal coverage and its east-west extent increased.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low 07-09 Sep, with a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) due primarily to the growth of Region 2866.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,283 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 07-09 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was mainly 3 to 6 nT and the Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged mostly from 290-330 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue 07-09 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 07-09 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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