[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2866 (S19W52, Dai/beta), 2868 (S20W68, Dao/beta), and 2869 (S34W48, Axx/alpha) continued to decay over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

A filament eruption centered near N35W15 was observed in H-Alpha and SDO imagery between 13/0100-0200 UTC. Further analysis and potential modelling will occur as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on 13-15 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 13-15 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were enhanced this period likely due to influence from the northern crown CH HSS. Total field was between 7-10 nT while the Bz component was variable. Solar wind speeds increased from near 350 km/s to 475 km/s. Phi has been in a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced through 15 Sep due to CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 13-15 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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