[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1 flare at 14/0649 UTC. Region 2866 (S18W65, Dao/beta) continued to decay as it rotated closer to the southwest limb. Region 2868 (S21W82, Dso/beta) also decayed further as it nearly reached the west limb. Despite the decay, the region produced several B-class flares and the aforementioned C1/Sf flare.

The filament eruption (13/0100-0200 UTC) associated CME discussed previously is still undergoing analysis and modeling. However, early analysis and model results indicated a near-miss ahead of Earths orbit - with a low forecast confidence.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares on 14-16 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 14-16 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions reflected the likely influence of the northern crown CH HSS. Total field ranged from 4-9 nT, the Bz component was between +/- 7 nT, and the solar wind speed reached just over 500 km/s, before it slowly declined to speeds ~425-450 km/s. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced through the the remainder of 14 Sep due to CH HSS influences. A return to mostly background conditions is expected by midday on 15 Sep through 16 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 14 Sep, returning to mostly quiet conditions on 15-16 Sep as the CH HSS rotates away from its geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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