[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2871 (S28E54, Dao/beta) produced numerous B-class events during the period. The region exhibited penumbral growth in both the leader and trailer portions. New Region 2872 (N18E49, Bxo/beta) quietly emerged on the disk during the period.

Other activity included a 5 degree filament eruption along a channel centered near S38W04. It was first observed at 19/1042 UTC in H-alpha imagery. A faint CME signature was observed off the S limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 19/1336 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent model output, suggests a very weak glancing blow is possible midday on 23 Sep.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class activity on 20-22 Sep, due to potential flare activity from Region 2871.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed at an average of about 325 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative sector when a rotation to a positive orientation was observed at about 20/0730 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to be at or near background levels on 20 Sep followed by a possible slight increase in wind speed on 21-22 Sep from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 20 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return on 21-22 Sep due to the aforementioned weak CH HSS.

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