[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a pair of C1 flares at 21/0903 UTC and 21/1153 UTC. Region 2871 (S28E43, Dko/beta-delta) grew in areal coverage and developed an opposite polarity umbra within the lead penumbra. The region was the source of numerous B-class enhancements. Region 2872 (N16E33, Hrx/alpha) underwent decay and was inactive. Region 2873 (N26W16, Dai/beta) grew and gained intermediate spots. The region was also the source of the aforementioned C1 flares. A pair of additional active regions were present over the southern hemisphere with potential spot development, however, we await corroborating observatory reports and duration requirements before assignment as new NOAA region designations.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were noted.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class activity on 21-23 Sep, due primarily to potential flare activity from Regions 2871 and 2873.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was primarily 4-6 nT and the Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations, but did have a peak deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds were predominantly 300-345 km/s. The phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: A slight increase in wind speed is possible on 21-22 Sep from a positive polarity CH HSS. Minor CME effects are also possible on 23 Sep with the potential glancing blow arrival of the 19 Sep CME. However, the bulk of the eruptive material appears to be headed south and west of Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue 21-22 Sep in reaction to connection with a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are anticipated on 23 Sep in response to effects from the possible glancing blow arrival of the 19 Sep CME.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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