[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Regions 2874 (S25W21, Bxo/beta) and 2875 (S32W29, Bxo/beta) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable. Region 2871 (S28E32, Dko/beta-delta) produced a C1.1 flare at 21/1828 UTC, which was the largest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for M-class flares 22-24 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22-24 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was slightly enhanced due to a SSBC and subsequent weak +CH HSS. Total field reached a peak of 10 nT, and the Bz component underwent several prolonged, southward deflections ranging from -5 to -9 nT. Wind speeds began a gradual increase from near 335 km/s to near 400 km/s during the second half of the period. Phi became positive near 21/2308 UTC.

Forecast: Continued weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS is expected for the remainder of 22. Minor CME effects are also possible on 23 Sep with a CME from 19 Sep that might transit close enough to Earth to enhance the IMF/solar wind.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are anticipated on 22 Sep with a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are anticipated on 23 Sep in response to the 19 Sep CME that will be passing nearby. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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