[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Regions 2872 (N17E19, Cai/beta) and 2873 (N26W41, Cro/beta) showed some growth, but were otherwise unremarkable. Regions 2874 (S23W32, Axx/alpha) and 2875 (S31W41, Bxo/beta) were quiet and nearly decayed to plage.

Region 2871 (S28E19, Dko/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.8/1N flare, the largest of the period, at 23/0442 UTC. USAF observatories reported associated type IV and II radio sweeps with an estimated speed of 966 km/s. Coronagraph imagery for that time frame is currently unavailable, but analysis of the anticipated CME will begin as data backfills.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares 23-25 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 23-25 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The IMF was slightly disturbed due to a weak positive polarity CH HSS and the likely arrival of a glancing blow from the 19 Sep CME late in the period. Total field was 3-6 nT, Bz ranged 4 to -5 nT and wind speeds were ~360-405 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive, but began to oscillate to the negative solar sector at approximately 23/0238 UTC.

Forecast: Slight enhancements in the IMF are expected to continue over the course of 23 Sep. Conditions should trend nearer to background levels on 24 Sep before a negative polarity CH HSS arrives on 25 Sep, elevating conditions once again.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active period, are expected 23 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 24 Sep as residual glancing influence from the 19 Sep CME and positive polarity CH HSS wanes. A negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to affect Earth on 25 Sep and increase the chances for geomagnetic storming. A max Kp of 4 is anticipated.

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