[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 24 1230 UTC.

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Regions 2873 (N25W55, Bxo/beta) and 2875 (S33W54, Axx/alpha) continued to gradually decay and were quiet. Region 2872 (N14W06, Cro/beta) underwent decay in its intermediate spots and consolidation in its leading and trailer spots, but was otherwise unremarkable.

This period saw decay and then new formation of trailing spots in region 2871 (S25E07, Dho/beta-delta) as well as some magnetic simplification in the leading spots. At 23/1528 UTC region 2871 produced an M1.8 flare and subsequent CME. Initial analysis and model run indicate an overtaking of the slightly slower CME that was also produced by region 2871 earlier on the 23rd with an arrival anticipated for the first half of 27 Sep.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 24-26 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 24-26 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The IMF was enhanced due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field increased from 2-3 nT to an average of 7-9 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward with a few weak deflections. Wind speeds increased during the second half of the period from ~400 km/s to ~500 km/s. Phi began the period variable, but became predominantly negative after approximately 23/1600 UTC.

Forecast: Continued relatively weak influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to continue the rest of 24 Sep and begin to wane over the course of 25 Sep. By midday on 26 Sep, greater influence from a positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to become present.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with the chance of an isolated active period, are expected 24-25 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 26 Sep as a positive polarity CH HSS extension from the Northern crown becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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