[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 25 1320 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 25 1320 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2871 (S28W07, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive C1 flare at 25/0354 UTC, the largest event of the period. Associated with this flare was a Type II radio emission with a shock velocity of 739 km/s. The region grew slightly in area and spot count. Region 2872 (N18W18, Cao/beta) exhibited area and spot decay and produced a few B-class events. Region 2876 (S22W04, Bxo/beta) was unchanged and quiet. Both Regions 2873 (N25, L=054) and 2875 (S33, L=054) decayed to plage. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flare activity, over 25-27 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 25-27 Sep, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 475 km/s to end-of-period values of about 550 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 3-7 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 25-27 Sep due to CH HSS influence and the possible glancing-blow arrival of the 23 Sep CMEs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 Sep under continued, but weakening, negative polarity CH HSS influence. The anticipated influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected, CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 26 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 27 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 23 Sep CMEs.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation