[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2871 (S27W32, Cai/beta-gamma) produced some B-class flare activity during the period. The region continued to exhibit area consolidation and a slight decrease in spot count. Region 2872 (N16W47, Bxo/beta) showed some decay, but did produce some B-class flare activity. Regions 2877 (S18W06, Bxo/beta) and 2878 (S22E29, Cao/beta) were both quiet and generally unchanged. New Region 2879 (N13W24, Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely, over 27-29 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 27-28 Sep with moderate to high levels on 29 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about 26/2200 UTC with a weak magnetic field and slow winds speeds at an average of about 390 km/s. After 26/200 UTC, total field increased to a maximum of 11 nT at 26/0515 UTC, Bz reached a maximum southward extent of -6 nT at 27/0147 UTC and density increased to a maximum reading of about 15 pp/cm at 27/0741 UTC. Wind speeds remained steady at about 390 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation.

Forecast: The anticipated influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected CH HSS is expected to enhance solar wind parameters later on 27 Sep with further enhancements possible on 27-28 Sep due to effects from the arrival of the 23 Sep CMEs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 27-28 Sep due to a possible glancing blow from the 23 Sep CMEs followed by the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 29 Sep as conditions persist.

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