[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 28 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2877 (S18W21, Cro/beta) continued to grow over the period, but remained quiet. Newly numbered region 2880 (N32E60, Bxo/beta) developed this period, but was also quiet. Region 2871 (S28W48, Hrx/alpha) continued to slowly decay while producing a C1.6/SF flare at 28/0634 UTC, the largest of the period.

A type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 534 km/s was associated with the aforementioned flare. Coronagraph imagery indicates a partial, asymmetric halo beginning around 28/0648 UTC. Analysis and modeling are currently underway for this event.

Another, relatively weak, CME was produced by region 2871 around 27/1200 UTC. This CME was analyzed, modeled, and determined to mostly pass just ahead of Earths orbit late on 01 Oct although some glancing influence cannot be ruled out.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares 28-30 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 28 Sep with moderate to high levels on 29-30 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of a CIR and subsequent HSS of a positive polarity, polar extension CH. Total field peaked at 15 nT near 27/1839 UTC, and has steadily weakened since to ~5 nT. The Bz component has mostly been benign being northward or near neutral with a very brief southward deflection of -8 nT near 27/2235 UTC. Wind speeds increased as the CH HSS became geoeffective, increasing from ~370 km/s to ~525 km/s by the end of the period. Phi became predominantly positive at approx. 27/2032 UTC.

Forecast: Continued CH HSS influence is anticipated to continue 28-29 Sep, and begin to wane over the course of 30 Sep. Further enhancements to the IMF are likely late 28 Sep due to influence from the 23 Sep CME(s).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 28 Sep with continued CH HSS effects and the anticipated arrival of the 23 Sep CME(s). Storming is likely to carry over into 29 Sep with G1 conditions being likely. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Sep with any lingering activity.

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