[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with two sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Region 2880 (N31W57, Axx/alpha) decayed further and was inactive. Region 2882 (N17E36, Cso/beta) also decayed over the period and produced a C5.5/SF flare at 07/0246 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity, with a slight chance for C-class flares, is expected 07-09 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 07-09 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced this period due to likely influence from a transient. Total field began the period with an increase to 12 nT, and has gradually declined since ending the period near 7-8 nT. The Bz component underwent a sustained, southward deflection of up to -10 nT during the aforementioned increase in total field, but then remained northward. During the final hours of the period Bz underwent another, albeit weaker, southward deflection of up to -6 nT. Wind speeds remained at ambient-like levels averaging between ~300-330 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive while undertaking a few brief excursions into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to continue primarily as a slow regime with minor disturbances and enhancements 07-09 Oct due to weak, nearby passing transients and slight influences of a nearby negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 07-09 Oct in varying responses to the anticipated occasional enhancements and disturbances in the solar wind field.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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