[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2882 (N17E06, Dho/beta-gamma) produced an M1/2b flare at 09/0653 UTC. Associated with the event was a full-halo CME signature which was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0712 UTC. A Type II radio sweep (608 km/s), Type IV radio sweep, and Tenflare (430 sfu) were also observed with the event. The CME is assumed to be Earth-directed is currently being analyzed and modeled to estimate onset timing at Earth. The regions area remained stable and only subtle development was observed in the penumbra north of its largest spot.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 09-11 Oct due to the flare potential from Region 2882.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 09-11 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were slow, averaging ~285 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain nominal with possible minor IMF disturbances over 09-11 Oct due to weak influence of a CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence, over 09-11 Oct. Timing of the 09 Oct CME has not yet been determined as modeling of the event is ongoing.

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