[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2882 (N18W07, Dho/beta) was relatively quiet throughout the period. Penumbral decay was observed in the spots north of its largest spot. The largest flare of the period was a C2 at 09/2257 UTC from a region of plage in the SE quadrant.

A CME was observed originating from near the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning around 09/2124 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was present. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 10-12 Oct due to the flare potential from Region 2882.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained well below warning thresholds.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain near background 10-12 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected minor enhancements in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-8 nT. The Bz component was oriented southward around -6 to -8 nT after 10/0950 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between 284-315 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from predominantly negative to variable after 10/0730 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to remain near background or slightly enhanced over 10 Oct. The anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 09 Oct will likely enhance solar wind parameters after midday on 11 Oct. Enhancements from the CME are expected to continue into 12 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence, on 10 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 11 Oct due to the arrival of the 09 CME. Active levels to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 12 Oct influence from the CME persists.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation