[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Oct 11 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Oct 11 0049 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 October 2021

Solar activity was very low over 04-06 Oct. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 07-08 and 10 Oct, and moderate solar activity was observed on 09 Oct. Region 2882 (N17, L=157, class/area=Dho/280 on 09 Oct) produced the majority of the C-class flare activity in addition to the largest event of the period, an M1/2b flare (with Type-II and IV radio emissions) at 09/0638 UTC. An associated full-halo CME signature was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0712 UTC, and is likely to arrive at Earth around midday on 11 Oct.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal and normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 07-09 Oct, quiet to unsettled on 04-06 Oct, and quiet to active on 10 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 October - 06 November 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-21 Oct. Normal and normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 11 Oct, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 12 Oct, due to the anticipated arrival of a full-halo CME from 09 Oct. Active conditions are expected on 19 Oct due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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