[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2886 (S19E53, Hsx/alpha) was the sole spotted region on the visible disk, and remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected over 19-21 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 19-20 Oct and then reach high levels 21 Oct in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background over 19-21 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected continued minor enhancements in the IMF as lingering weak transient and CH HSS influences persisted. Total field strength ranged from 3-10 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 8 nT, while Phi spent significant time in both sectors. Wind speeds ranged from near 335 km/s to 385 km/s during the period.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the IMF are expected 19-21 Oct due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected 19-21 Oct in response to CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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