[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2886 (S19E42, Hsx/alpha) remained the only spotted region on the visible disk, and was quiescent. So far, no spots have developed in the new area of emerging flux located near N23E53, and the area remains unnumbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected over 20-22 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 20 Oct and then reach high levels 21 Oct in response to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background over 20-22 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected early enhancements in the IMF, likely associated with CH HSS influences. Total field strength increased to 10 nT early, before decreasing to end the period below 5 nT. The Bz component saw an early southward deviation to - 8 nT before becoming mostly neutral to positive by periods end. Phi was in a predominantly negative orientation, with several oscillations into a positive position. Wind speeds saw an early increase from just under 350 km/s to near 420 km/s before gradually decreasing to end near 385 km/s..

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the IMF are expected to persist through 21 Oct before beginning a gradual return to an ambient-like state over 22 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 21 Oct, with isolated active periods possible, in response to CH HSS effects. Primarily quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 21-22 Oct as CH HSS effects begin to gradually wane.

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