[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2891 (N18E36, Dac/beta) produced three low-level C-class flares this period and began to show signs of decay. Region 2887 (S28W28, Dso/beta-gamma) produced a single C-flare and continued to exhibited a trend of overall decay throughout the period. Regions 2886 (S19W87, Hsx/alpha) and 2889 (S23W02, Bxo/beta) were steady and quiet. New flux emergence was observed near N27W07. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) expected and a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong Radio Blackouts), over 30-31 Oct and 01 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the alert threshold of 10 pfu throughout the period. A maximum flux reading of 29 pfu was recorded at 29/0250 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux decreased below the alert threshold of 1 pfu at 30/0440 UTC, with a peak flux of 7 pfu observed at 28/1815 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at S1 (Minor) storm levels on 30-31 Oct, with a chance for an additional enhancement above the S1 threshold on 01 Nov. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux is expected to gradually return to background levels over 30-31 Oct. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 30-31 Oct. The expected arrival of the 28 Oct CME is expected to influence the electron field to moderate to high levels on 01 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced this period. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 300 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength ranged between 2-8 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward at around -5 nT between 30/0330-0630 UTC. Solar wind density exceeded 20 ppcm early this period, but remained slightly enhanced throughout the duration of the period.

Forecast: On 30 Oct, enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected due to the predicted arrival of the 28 Oct CME from the X1 flare. Enhanced parameters are expected to persist through 31 Oct and slowly diminish by 01 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the first half of 30 Oct. At about midday on 30 Oct, the 28 Oct CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field. G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through the latter half of 30 Oct through the first half of 31 Oct. CME effects are anticipated to gradually decline through the remainder of 31 Oct into 01 Nov when mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail.

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