[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2891 (N16E23, Dac/beta) remained largely unchanged from the previous period and produced multiple low-level C-class flares today. Region 2887 (S29W40, Dso/beta-gamma) exhibited continued decay throughout the period and produced isolated C-class flare activity. New Region 2893 (N21E75, Hsx/alpha) rotated into view on the east limb and was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. Region 2892 (N26W22, Bxo/beta) was quiet and stable. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts), over 31 Oct and 01-02 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased below event threshold of 10 pfu early this period, however, flux values briefly exceeded 10 pfu (S1-Minor) between 30/2100-2130 UTC, coincident with the arrival of a CME from 26 Oct. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist below the S1 (Minor) event threshold for the remainder of 31 Oct, but there is a chance for an additional enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) storm level due to CME passage. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 31 Oct, with high levels likely on 01-02 Nov following CME passage.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became enhanced between 30/1500-31/0100 UTC due to what appeared to be the passage of a CME from 26 Oct. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values around 325 km/s to around 375-400 km/s. Total field strength increased to 12 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward at around -5 to -10 nT between 30/2030-2300 UTC. Solar wind density increased to around 40 ppcm and the phi angle transitioned from negative to positive.

A weak interplanetary (IP) shock, likely associated with the arrival of a CME from 28 Oct, was observed beginning at 31/0910 UTC. Following the IP shock, total field strength increased from 4 nT to 13 nT, the Bz component reached -11 nT, and solar wind speed values increased from around 375 km/s to around 450 km/s.

Forecast: Further enhancements in solar wind parameters are anticipated on 31 Oct due to CME effects. Enhanced parameters are expected to persist through 01 Nov and slowly wane over 02 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period due to an enhanced solar wind environment.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 31 Oct due to CME influence. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are anticipated on 01 Nov, with quiet to unsettled conditions likely on 02 Nov, as CME effects gradually wane over 01-02 Nov.

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