[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. In addition to multiple C-class flares, Region 2887 (S27W54, Cso/beta-gamma) produced an M1/1f flare, with associated Type-II (626 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions, at 01/0145 UTC. The region continued to exhibit decay throughout the period. Region 2891 (N17E10, Dai/beta) was mostly quiet and decayed slightly in overall area since the previous period. Region 2893 (N16E65, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable throughout the period.

A CME associated with the M1 flare was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 01/0200 UTC. The bulk of ejecta appears to be directed south and west of the Sun-Earth line, however, initial estimates suggest an Earth-directed component is likely. Further analysis of this event is underway.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts), over 01-03 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels this period, but persisted below the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold. Following the M1 flare at 01/0145 UTC, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased from around 2-3 pfu to 4-5 pfu after 01/0200 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over 01-03 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 01 Nov, with high levels likely on 02-03 Nov following CME influence.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were disturbed this period under continued, but weakening influence of a CME. Solar wind speeds ranged between 300-460 km/s. Total field strength values ranged between 3-13 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT briefly at 31/1121 UTC. Solar wind density values reached a peak of 37 ppcm around mid-period, and the phi angle indicated a transition from negative to positive around midday.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain enhanced, but gradually return to background levels over 01-02 Nov, due to waning CME influence. A background solar wind environment is expected on 03 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet and unsettled conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of 01 Nov through 02 Nov as CME influence is expected to wane and subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 03 Nov.

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