[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a long duration M1/1f flare from Region 2891 (N16W04, Dai/beta). Associated with this flare was a 110 pfu 10 cm radio burst and a halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0248 UTC. Due to its location near center disk, an Earth-directed component is expected. Further modelling is necessary as imagery becomes available.

Region 2887 (S25W73, Hsx/alpha) was responsible for producing a CME at 01/1824 UTC from a long duration C1 flare at 01/1801 UTC off the SW limb. This was followed by what appeared to be a double CME event off the W and SW limb at 01/2124 UTC associated with a C4/Sf flare at 01/2133 UTC. Initial modelling of the CMEs from 2887 appear to show an arrival on 04 Nov. Further analysis is in progress.

The trailing spots of Region 2887 decayed leaving the group a simple H-type spot. Some motion could be seen along the inversion line in the central spots of Region 2891. Region 2893 (N16E52, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts), over 02-04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels near 2-3 pfu, but well below the 10 pfu (S1-minor) threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over 02-03 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02-04 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the connection to a positive polarity CH HSS from a northern crown extension. Total field increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 01/1953 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed from approximately 335 km/s to near 600 km/s. The Bz component was between +15/-12 nT and the phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain enhanced, but gradually return to background levels by 03 Nov as HSS effects slowly diminish. By 04 Nov, a conglomeration of CMEs from Region 2887 will likely impact Earth, however timing may be changed based on new inputs from todays halo CME associated with Region 2891.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected on 02 Nov as CH HSS persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 04 Nov from combined CME activity. These levels will be re-evaluated as new information from todays halo CME becomes available.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation