[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to an isolated C1 flare at 02/1305 UTC from Region 2887 (S25W84, Hsx/alpha). Region 2891 (N16W19, Dao/beta-delta) appeared to show some consolidation within its central spots forming a weak delta. Region 2893 (N17E37, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable.

Just prior to the C1 flare, an 8 degree filament eruption occurred just to the SE of Region 2887 centered near S31W61 at 02/1137 UTC. This resulted in a CME off the SW limb in SOHO coronagraph imagery beginning at 02/1236 UTC. WSA ENLIL modelling of this CME showed no Earth-directed component. Two other CMEs of note occurred at 02/2148 UTC off the SW limb and another off the NE limb at 03/0136 UTC. The first could be observed in SDO/AIA 171 imagery at 02/1730 UTC in the vicinity of Region 2887. The second was likely the result of a filament eruption in the NW quadrant near N35E50 around 02/1915 UTC. Both arent likely to have an Earth-directed component, however further analysis will be done as STEREO coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance for additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts), over 03-05 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels near 2-3 pfu, but well below the 10 pfu (S1-minor) threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold 03-04 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-05 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were in decline as HSS activity slowly waned. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 630 km/s to near 520 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain enhanced through most of 03 Nov as CH influence slowly wanes. By late on 03 Nov to early on 04 Nov, a series of CMEs from Regions 2887 and 2891 will likely impact Earth, causing additional enhancements to the solar wind environment. CME effects are expected to persist through 05 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for most of the day on 03 Nov ahead of the 02 Nov CMEs. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm levels, late on 03 Nov to early on 04 Nov due to combined CME/CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 05 Nov as CH HSS and CME effects wane.

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