[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2887 (S25, L=277) produced a C5.2 at 03/2117 UTC as it transited the SW limb. SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery showed an associated CME off the SW limb at 03/2136 UTC, although the event is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. Slight decay was noted in the leading and trailing spots of Region 2891 (N16W33, Dao/beta-delta). Region 2893 (N17E24, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flaring on 04-06 Nov and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background levels near 2-3 pfu for most of the period, and nearly reached S1 (Minor) levels late in the period with the arrival of the 01 Nov CME(s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to return to background levels on 04-06 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV electrons are expected to reach moderate to high levels on 04-06 Nov in response to CME activity.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated nominal conditions waning from a CH HSS until 03/1924 UTC. Solar wind speeds were steady near 520 km/s and Bt was less than 5nT. At 03/1925, the arrival of the anticipated CME was observed at L1 in RTSW data. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s to near 770 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 23 nT at 03/0648 UTC while a prolonged period of southward Bz of -12 to -18 nT was observed between 04/0430-0830 UTC. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: CME activity is expected to persist through 04 Nov and slowly wane on 05-06 Nov. Solar wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range along with total field values near 15-20 nT are likely to continue through the latter half of 04 Nov before slowly diminishing.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels through 03/1800z as HSS conditions slowly waned. A sudden impulse was observed at 03/1957 UTC with a deviation of 21nT measured at the FRD magnetometer in response to the CME shock arrival. Afterwards, levels escalated to G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions.

Forecast: CME effects are expected to continue through 04 Nov, with G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) storm conditions through just after midday and active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels afterwards. Unsettled to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 05-06 Nov as CME effects wane.

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