[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels.

Region 2891 (N16, L=211) produced a long duration M2 (R1-Minor radio blackout) flare from just beyond the west limb at 09/1702 UTC.

Region 2893 (N16W60, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2894 (S26E01, Hsx/alpha) were both stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 10-12 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2487 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels until just after 09/1900 UTC when it began to rise above 1 pfu at geosynchronous orbit following an M2 (R1 Minor) flare.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 10-12 Nov. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain below alert thresholds, yet enhanced.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A minor disturbance was observed in the solar wind. Total field strength peaked at 6 nT and Bz underwent numerous, albeit insignificant, north/south deviations. Wind speed increased from around 400 km/s to near 450 km/s. Phi was highly variable.

Forecast: A near-background solar wind environment is anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, on 10-12 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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