[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2898 (S25W59, Cso/beta) underwent decay in its trailing spots as it continued to rotate towards the western limb. Regions 2900 (S26W71, Dao/beta) and 2902 (N18W23, Dro/beta) were stable and quiet. Regions 2901 (N16, L=153) and 2903 (S17, L=151) decayed to plage over the course of the period.

There are no new Earth-directed CMEs to report.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for isolated C-class flare activity, over 01-03 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate through 03 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was disturbed. Analysis of real-time solar wind data from the DSCOVR satellite suggests the arrival of a CH HSS, which had not been anticipated. This HSS would have likely originated from an extension from the northern crown that has since rotated out of view. Total field peaked at 15 nT and Bz dropped to -13 nT for a time. More recently winds began to climb from around 350 km/s to near 550 km/s. The phi angle oscillated some through the day, but switched to a predominantly positive orientation with the onset of the HSS. Forecast: Lingering HSS activity is expected into 01 Dec. Another HSS, care of another positive polarity CH, is expected to arrive late on 02 Dec. The CME from 29 Nov is also expected begin to influence the near-Earth environment around this time, with combined effects lingering through 03 Dec. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels.

Forecast: Mostly unsettled levels are expected to continue over the course of 01 Dec as CH HSS effects continue. Day 2 (02 Dec) is expected to be at unsettled levels with another positive polarity HSS and possible early influence from the 29 Nov CME. The bulk of the CME is still thought to pass south of Earth and arrive at its closest point to Earth on 03 Dec. Combined effects from the CME and HSS are probable on 03 Dec. Active conditions appear very likely with a chance for exceeding G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming thresholds.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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