[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2902 (N17W26, Dro/beta) continued to develop in its trailing spots and mature in its intermediate grouping, but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining regions were stable and also quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for isolated C-class flare activity, over 02-04 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 03 Dec before returning to normal to moderate levels 04 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. The 10 MeV proton flux expected to continue at background levels through 04 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained disturbed this period due to continuing CH HSS and possible glancing transient influence. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT, the Bz component underwent many brief, southward deflections of -4 to -5 nT, and wind speeds were ~45-550 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector until ~01/2200 UTC when it became variable reflecting what is likely the aforementioned transient which could possibly be an early arrival of the 29 Nov CME. Forecast: Additional enhancements are anticipated to begin late on 02 Dec due to another positive polarity CH HSS effecting the near-Earth environment. It should be noted that the 29 Nov CME may still be in play to arrive late on 02 Dec into 03 Dec as well, but confidence is low. Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period.

Forecast: Mostly unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected through 03 Dec due to an additional CH HSS and likely weak transient effects. Mostly unsettled levels are likely 04 Dec as another positive polarity CH HSS rotates into a geoeffective position and whatever lingering transient-like effects dissipate.

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