[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 03 1400 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 03 1400 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2898 (S26W81, Hsx/alpha) and 2902 (N19W41, Cro/beta) were both stable and quiet. A filament just east of region 2902 was observed lifting off around 03/0800 UTC. Analysis and possible modeling will be accomplished to determine any potential Earth-directed component once NASA coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 03-05 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum value of 2,920 pfu at 02/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03 Dec, and decrease to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels on 04-05 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced and disturbed state due mostly to CH HSS influences. Total field ranged 3-6 nT, the Bz component briefly reached -5 nT, and wind speeds continued a gradual decline from ~510 km/s to ~450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive while undertaking a few brief excursions into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Minor flanking influences from the 29 Nov CME are possible 03 Dec as the transient arrives, but likely passes mostly south of Earth. Also, varying influences of isolated, positive polarity CH HSS features will keep the solar wind field agitated and mildly enhanced 04-05 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are anticipated on 03 Dec due to nearby passing CME influences coupled with CH HSS effects. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely 04 Dec as any CME effects wane, but HSS effects continue. 05 Dec is likely to experience quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated active period due to slightly increased HSS effects.

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