[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to several C-class flares from Region 2898 (S26, L=239) after it rotated beyond the west limb. There were two CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery starting near 04/0530 UTC that were associated with this activity. However, the ejecta is determined to be off the Sun-Earth line. Region 2902 (N18W52, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight decay and was inactive. No Earth-Directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 04-06 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum value of 4,873 pfu at 03/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 04-06 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Solar wind speed increased to 500 km/s. Total field increased from 4 nT to a peak of 9 nT at 03/1441 UTC while the Bz component was between +5/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become elevated on 04-05 Dec with the arrival of two positive polarity CH HSSs. Solar wind speeds are expected to trend upwards of 500 km/s before slowly tapering down on 06 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are forecast for 04-05 Dec due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 06 Dec as HSS effects slowly wane.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation