[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Dec 13 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Dec 13 0138 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 December 2021

Solar activity ranged from very low to low. A C1.3 flare was observed at 06/0622 UTC from Region 2902 (N18, L=198, class/area Dsi/100 on 02 Dec), the largest of the period. All other numbered regions on the visible disk were quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to high levels. High levels were observed from 06-10 Dec following influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels returned on 11-12 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled. Isolated unsettled levels were observed on 06-07 Dec in response to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS and again on 11 Dec following the onset of a weak, slow-moving transient feature. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 December - 08 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely on 16-21 Dec and again on 29 Dec - 04 Jan in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels are likely on 27-28 Dec; active conditions are likely on 15 Dec and 29 Dec; unsettled conditions are likely on 13 Dec, 16-18 Dec and 30 Dec - 01 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at quiet levels under nominal solar wind conditions.

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