[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a C3 flare at 03/1954 UTC from Region 3040 (S13, L=325) just beyond the SW limb. Region 3046 (N17E29, Hsx/alpha) was observed to be to distinct spot groups and was split with the eastward spots becoming Region 3050 (N18E37, Bxo/beta). New Region 3051 (N27E33, Cro/beta) was also numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flares on 04-06 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 04-06 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained enhanced under continued CME influences. Total field ranged from 6-20 nT while the Bz component was between +17/-12 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 320 km/s to near 400 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: A gradual return to nominal conditions is expected by late on 04 Jul. An additional enhancement is expected late on 05 Jul through 06 Jul due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active periods are expected through the later half of 04 Jul due to continued CME effects. Unsettled conditions are expected late on 05 Jul and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 06 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS onset.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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