[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels and seven sunspot groups were present on the visible disk. Region 3047 (S20W29, Bxo/beta) underwent decay, yet produced the largest flare of the period - a C9.8 at 05/0407 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 1255 km/s. A CME associated shock was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery, however, the primary ejecta appeared directed in a more narrow, west to west-northwest trajectory. CME analysis of this event is in progress as of this report, to determine the possibility of any potential geoeffective component.

Region 3045 (S15W28) decayed to plage. Region 3050 (N18E16) decayed to plage, however, the area was unstable and produced some C-class flares, to include a C5.1 flare at 04/1333 UTC. This flare was associated with Type II and IV sweeps, however, no visible CME was detected in available coronagraph imagery. Region 3051 (N27E19, Cro/beta) grew slightly. New NOAA Regions 3052 (N15E62, Cro/beta) and 3053 (N14E78, Hsx/alpha) were assigned this period. Region 3052 grew as it rotated further into view and Region 3053 rotated into view as a unipolar penumbral spot. Region 3053 produced a C5.8 flare at 05/0347 UTC. Remaining regions were inactive or in decay. An additional area of potential spot development was noted at approximately S16E03, but we await enough corroborative observatory spot reports and duration requirements before assignment as another official region.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 05-07 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 07 July.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an early period disturbance and enhancement, followed by a return to ambient, background-like conditions. Total IMF strength decreased from a peak of 16 nT early in the period to 2-3 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward directed beginning near 04/1400 UTC to about 04/2200 UTC, with a maximum deviation of -10 nT. Solar wind speed reached 487 km/s at 04/1714 UTC and gradually decreased afterwards to end of period speed ~375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative, with a brief shift into a positive sector from 05/0142-0338 UTC.

Forecast: Further enhancements to the solar wind environment are anticipated 05 Jul due to a SSBC ahead of a CIR associated with a positive polarity CH. Parameters are likely to reach peak levels 06 Jul as the HSS becomes the dominant feature in the IMF. Enhancements in the solar wind are expected to continue 06-07 July.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active in response to the enhanced and disturbed solar wind field, and became quiet as the disturbance waned.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 05 Jul as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective later in the period. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 06 Jul as CH HSS effects increase. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, are expected 07 Jul as effects gradually begin to cease.

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