[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low, with six sunspot groups present on the visible disk. The largest flare of the period was a C7.5/1f flare at 05/1238 UTC from Region 3053 (N15E66, Dso/beta). The region rotated further into view and trailer spots became visible. Region 3051 (N27E07, Cro/beta) underwent periods of growth and decay. Region 3052 (N15E46, Cro/beta) underwent some minor growth and gained spots. Regions 3045 (S20W41) and 3049 (S12E13) decayed to plage. NOAA/SWPC Region 3054 (N21W21, Bxo/beta) was assigned to newly emerged bipolar spots.

Remaining regions were inactive or in decay. No new CMEs were observed on the Sun-Earth line in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 06-08 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 08 July.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were initially ambient, however, later in the period an enhancement in the IMF took place as the total field strength increased to 8 nT. The Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from ~375 km/s to around 325 km/s. The phi angle was negative until near 05/2000 UTC, when it oscillated between sectors and eventually settled predominantly into a positive orientation.

Forecast: Enhancements to the solar wind environment are expected to increase on 06 Jul due to anticipated CH HSS onset. An enhanced solar wind field is expected to continue 07-08 July.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely later on 06 Jul as CH HSS onset begins. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, are expected 07-08 Jul as effects wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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