[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low, with six sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Region 3046 (N16W12, Hax/alpha) underwent some decay. Regions 3047 (S20W59) and 3048 (S13W34) decayed to plage. Region 3052 (N15E34, Cso/beta) underwent minor growth. Region 3053 (N14E53, Eko/beta) experienced some growth and development in trailer and was the source of a few isolated optical subflares. New NOAA/SWPC Region 3055 (S18E66, Dso/beta) was assigned and it was the source of the periods largest flare, a C1.5 at 07/0129 UTC. Remaining regions were little changed or in decay. No new CMEs were observed on the Sun-Earth line in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) on 07-09 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 09 July.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime most of the period; with a pronounced enhancement in the IMF late in the period - possibly a combined transient and CIR arrival. This was followed by increased solar wind speed. Total IMF strength reached 7 nT early, but weakened to under 5 nT. It later increased to a peak of 21 nT. The Bz component underwent mainly weak deviations most of the period, with a late period pronounced southward deflection that reached -16 nT. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 300-335 km/s until after 07/0800 UTC when it gradually increased to just over 400 km/s. The phi angle was mainly positive until near 06/2100 UTC when it alternated between sectors.

Forecast: Further enhancements to the solar wind environment are expected on 07 Jul due to possible transient and CH HSS influences. An enhanced, but weakening solar wind field is expected 08 Jul due to waning CH HSS effects. Ambient background solar wind is expected on 09 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels, with an early period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions expected 07 Jul in response to the enhanced and disturbed solar wind field. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 Jul as CH HSS effects continue, but wane. Mostly quiet activity is expected on 09 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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