[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-flare activity from Regions 3053 (N14E40, Eko/beta) and 3055 (S18E53, Dao/beta). Slight growth was observed in these two regions as well as Region 3051 (N28W20, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted groups were either stable or in decay. Other activity included an approximate 15 degree filament eruption centered near S40W70 that began at 08/0012 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. A corresponding CME was observed off the SW limb at 08/0135 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery. Further imagery is needed for analysis. Based on its initial trajectory, an Earth-directed component is unlikely.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 08-10 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 09-10 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by a CME passage. Total field was near 20 nT until 08/0710 UTC when it decreased to near 12 nT. The Bz component was southward for the first half of the period reaching a maximum of -19 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 366-438 km/s and phi transitioned into a mostly positive sector after 08/0440 UTC.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 08-09 Jul with a combination of CME and positive polarity CH HSS influences. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 10 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME activity.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected for the latter half of 08 Jul with unsettled conditions continuing into 09 Jul due to persistent CME effects followed by HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 10 Jul.

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