[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a long duration M2 flare at 08/2049 UTC from Region 3053 (N15E28, Eki/beta). Associated with this flare were multiple discrete radio bursts including a 230 sfu Tenflare as well as a partial halo CME first observed at 08/2048 UTC in coronagraph imagery. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be directed eastward, however preliminary analysis indicate the possibility for a glancing blow early to mid day on 11 Jul.

Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3053. Overall slight growth and consolidation of the leader spots was observed in Region 3055 (S17E40, Eko/beta). Region 3051 (N29W30, Cao/beta) grew as well and showed a well defined umbra and penumbra in its larger trailing spot.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 09-11 Jul, particularly from Regions 3053 and 3055.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 09-11 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels by mid period. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 415 km/s to near 350 km/s. Total field decreased from 12 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-6 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels through early on 11 Jul. Around midday on 11 Jul there is a chance for a glancing blow from the 08 Jul CME. However, further analysis of the CME is in progress.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled until 09/0000 UTC. Quiet conditions prevailed afterwards.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 09-10 Jul under nominal solar wind conditions. Around midday on 11 Jul, there is a chance for a glancing blow from the 08 Jul CME. Activity is likely to reach unsettled to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.

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