[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Old Region 3047 (S20, L=242) produced a C8 flare at 09/1348 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. An impulsive C5 flare was produced from Region 3051 (N28W44, Cao/beta) at 09/2103 UTC and a C4 flare was produced from Region 3052 (N15W08, Hrx/alpha) at 09/2245 UTC. Analysis of the CME from the C8 flare observed at 09/1348 UTC indicated a miss. Further analysis is being conducted on the CME associated with the C4 flare beginning at 09/2312 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery.

Slight decay was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 3053 (N15E14, Eki/beta). Moderate growth was observed in the intermediate and leader spots of Region 3055 (S17E26, Eki/beta) with possible weak deltas in its magnetic configuration.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with an increased chance for M-flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 10-12 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The >10 MeV proton flux became enhanced after 09/1500 UTC following flare activity on the W limb, but did not exceed event thresholds with a maximum of 4.98 pfu observed at 09/1805 UTC.

The >2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate.

Forecast: The >10 MeV proton flux is likely to be weakly enhanced on 10-11 Jul. There is a slight chance for a proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) thresholds on 10-12 Jul due to the flare potential of Regions 3053 and 3055.

The >2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 10-12 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until after 10/0615 UTC, when total field increased to 10 nT. Solar wind speed remained in the 346-417 km/s range while the Bz component was between +7/-8 nT. Phi angle transitioned into a positive sector at 09/1830 UTC.

Forecast: Near nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 10-11 Jul. Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected on 12 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a weakly disturbed solar wind environment.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10-11 Jul and quiet to active on 12 Jul due to CH HSS onset.

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