[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to two M1 flares at 10/2343 UTC and 11/0919 UTC from Region 3056 (S17E61, Dao/beta-delta). This region was also responsible for numerous C-flare activity over the period including a C8 flare at 11/0153 UTC.

Region 3056 grew moderately over the period and a small delta magnetic configuration was observed in the northern portion of its leader spots. Region 3055 (S17E13, Ekc/beta) showed overall moderate growth and consolidation of its leading and trailing spots. Region 3053 (N16E01, Eki/beta) showed slight decay in its intermediate and trailing spots. A new region rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered 3057 (N16E75, Dso/beta).

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 11-13 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period elevated above background levels following a minor enhancement that began on 09 Jul, but gradually returned to around 1 pfu by 10/1100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) over 11-13 Jul due to whole disk flare potential. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced early in the period but declined to near nominal levels by 10/1730 UTC. Total field ranged from 1-10 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 316-410 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 12-13 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 11 Jul. Periods of active conditions on 12 Jul and G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 13 Jul are expected in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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